Mapping the benefits and costs associated with process innovation: The case of RFID adoption

The successful implementation of any innovation requires an understanding of its benefits and costs. This study examines the changes in the magnitude of costs and benefits associated with technology process innovation adoption as the innovation diffuses across different industries. Using RFID as an exemplar technology, the study shows that the magnitude of benefits and costs associated with technological process innovation adoption within different industries varies as technology diffuses beyond early adopters to the early majority. During the early stages of technology evolution, the development cost, the cost of capital, ethical costs and simple direct implementation costs (in the form of the cost of tags) predominate. As a dominant design emerges the profile of costs changes with the emphasis on initiation costs, more holistic direct implementation costs and indirect implementation costs. A similar change in the emphasis of benefits is observed, with a shift from direct to indirect benefits being noticeable as the technology moves from early adopters to early majority adopters. Our findings help to explain the difficulties in consistently measuring innovation outcomes observed in the innovation implementation literature, and emphasize the need to take into consideration the stage of technology development as a significant factor that influences the realised outcomes from innovation implementation.     

The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets

Existing studies using low-frequency data have found that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. However, these papers have not accounted for the presence of asymmetric information where sophisticated investors generate private information about the fundamentals that drive returns in many countries. In this paper, we use a new microstructure data set to better identify the effects of private and public information shocks about U.S. interest rates and equity returns. High-frequency private and public information shocks help forecast domestic money and equity returns over daily and weekly intervals. In addition, these shocks are components of factors that are priced in a model of the cross-section of international returns. Linking private information to U.S. macroeconomic factors is useful for many domestic and international asset-pricing tests.     

Going up and down: rethinking the empirics of growth in the developing and newly industrialized world

Growth dynamics are remarkably heterogeneous, in particular when one focuses on developing countries. Economic miracles and failures are embedded within extended phases of either growth or decline. In this paper, we analyze the growth patterns of developing and newly industrialized countries on the basis of structural breaks and growth regimes experienced. Emphasizing the presence of broken trends, we focus on the difference between expansionary and recessionary regimes of medium length, and we show that models of takeoffs and exponential growth are inadequate to characterize the majority of observed growth dynamics. Then, we move to a systematic classification of different patterns and we isolate an additional stylized fact characterizing the process of growth and development. In particular, our results show that expansionary regimes are associated with convergence and positive correlation between growth and (short run) volatility. By contrast, in recessionary regimes, poorer countries face deeper failures and a negative correlation between growth and volatility is found, indicating that output fluctuates less around the trend during strong rather than mild recessions. Catching-up phenomena are infrequent but more likely to occur across categories of growth patterns rather than within. Finally, we discover that regimes of growth and recession show similar average length (about 16 years). Although recessions are, on average, remarkably pronounced (14% loss of GDP per capita), the magnitude of growth is much larger during expansions. In sum, our results underline that stable positive growth is hardly achieved in developing countries, which rather alternate long phases of expansions with equally long phases of recession. Moreover, cross-sectional empirical regularities are found to differ between regimes of positive and negative growth.     

Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia

This article explores the determinants of interregional migration in Indonesia. Employing basic and modified (extended) gravity models, and using data from the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses and the 2005 Intercensal Population Survey, we test Long’s (1985) hypothesis that in the early stages of population redistribution, economic development is positively related to a concentration of the population. Using per-capita GDP as a proxy for income and as an indicator of economic development, we find that migration in Indonesia is indeed directed towards more developed regions. This finding supports the notion that regional disparities in development are an important factor in interregional migration in Indonesia. In line with classical gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows. However, unlike previous studies of interprovincial migration in Indonesia, we find that the effect of distance has weakened over time.     

Returns from social capital in open source software networks

Open Source Software projects base their operation on a collaborative structure for knowledge exchange in the form of provision or reception of information, expertise and feedback on the creation of source code. Here, we address the direction of these knowledge flows among projects throughout social networks and their impact on project success. We identify the roles of membership or contribution that individuals play within projects. We found that connections through contributors who bring their knowledge to the project, improve project success, and that connection through members, who transfer their knowledge towards other projects, enhance project success. Finally, we found that ties through shared membership and contributions hamper project success. The analysis of knowledge flows and their impact on project success imply a translation of returns from investment in social capital, where investment takes the shape of knowledge flows and the returns mean the projects’ diffusion over the network.

Product Market Competition,Executive Compensation,and CEO Family Ties

Review of Industrial Organization - This paper analyzes the interaction between product market competition and family ties on the structure of CEO pay, in a panel of publicly listed family firms....     

Seasonality in macroeconomic time series

Recently, the seasonal characteristics of macroeconomic time series have drawn a lot of attention. It has been argued that the seasonal component of many macroeconomic time series constitutes a major part of the series measured as a proportion of the variance. In addition it has been found that the seasonal component of most macroeconomic time series is constant and best “explained” by seasonal dummies. Specifically it is often found that a Christmas boom is followed by a beginning of the year trough. Based on quarterly and monthly macroeconomic time series from a large number of countries this paper shows that many macroeconomic time series have seasonal components that are changing over time. Furthermore, the Christmas boom and especially the 1st quarter trough is not found nearly as often as one might expect.     

Factors affecting success in the professional entry exam for accountants in Brazil

This paper explores factors that have affected the success of candidates in the professional entry exam conducted by Brazil’s Federal Council of Accounting. We analyse results of 18,948 candidates who sat for the exam in 2012, using a logistic regression model and the key indicators used by government to monitor the performance of higher education institutions (HEIs) and the characteristics of candidates. We find that success is related positively to the quality of the HEIs from which candidates graduated and to a measure of student ability that is used widely in Brazil. We find also that males perform better than females and that younger candidates perform better than older candidates. The geographical region of Brazil within which candidates completed the exam was also significant. The insights provided will help public policy-makers in Brazil, and the Brazilian accounting profession, to understand key factors associated with current low pass rates.